Understanding The Cheer Intel Projections

The Cheer Intel (TCI) projection system analyzes competition results to project likely outcomes within each division.

By studying scoring trends, execution consistency, deductions, and division competitiveness, the model estimates predicted scores, projected leaders, and expected score margins.

These projections are based on measurable performance patterns observed across competition results throughout the season.

TCI predictions are not opinions or popularity rankings. They reflect statistical analysis of scoring data.

What the Model Analyzes

Cheer competitions generate large amounts of scoring data each weekend. The TCI model analyzes this data to identify patterns that influence placements and advancement.

Key factors evaluated include:

Scoring Trends
Historical score ranges within each division and how those scores change across the season.

Team Consistency
How reliably teams perform across multiple competitions and whether scores trend upward, downward, or remain stable.

Deductions
How deduction frequency affects placements in closely contested divisions.

Division Competitiveness
The scoring separation between teams within a division and how small execution differences impact final rankings.

Together, these indicators provide context for how divisions typically perform and what score ranges are needed to win.

Key Metrics Used in TCI Projections

Projected Score

An estimated performance score based on historical scoring patterns and recent results.

The projected score estimates the level a team is expected to perform based on historical scoring patterns and recent competition results. Comparing projected scores across teams helps identify projected leaders and the approximate score range needed to win a division.

Win Probability

The statistical likelihood of a team winning its division based on projected score distributions.

Win probability reflects how likely a team is to win its division based on projected score distributions. Higher probabilities indicate stronger statistical positioning, while lower probabilities suggest a tighter or more competitive field.

Confidence Tier

A classification that reflects how clearly separated the projected leader is from the rest of the field.

Confidence tiers show how clearly separated the projected leader is from other teams in the division. Higher tiers indicate stronger statistical separation, while lower tiers suggest the division may be highly competitive.

Margin Range

The expected score difference between top teams within a division.

Margin range estimates the expected score difference between the top teams in a division. Smaller margins indicate tightly contested divisions where small execution differences may determine placements

Cheer Intel Rating (CIR)

A proprietary rating that evaluates a team’s scoring strength and consistency relative to others in its division.

CIR measures a team's scoring strength relative to others within its division. The rating reflects scoring level, consistency, and performance trends across events, providing a structured way to compare teams within the competitive field.

Where CIR Fits

The Cheer Intel Rating (CIR) is a proprietary rating used within the broader TCI analytics framework.

CIR measures a team’s scoring strength relative to others within its division by analyzing score levels, consistency, and performance trends across events.

While CIR helps contextualize team performance, it is only one component of the full prediction model. TCI projections incorporate multiple indicators to estimate outcomes and evaluate competitive positioning.

Confidence Classification

In addition to projected rankings, TCI assigns a confidence tier to help interpret how competitive a division may be.

Lock
Clear projected leader with strong statistical separation from the field.

Almost Lock
Strong leader with moderate separation from challengers.

Lean
Slight projected advantage with multiple teams still competitive.

Clear Toss-Up
Minimal separation between top teams where small execution differences could determine the winner.

Toss-Up
No clear statistical leader. Multiple teams project within a narrow scoring range.

Understanding the Projections

TCI projections are statistical estimates based on available competition data. They are intended to provide insight into scoring trends and competitive positioning but do not guarantee final results.

As new competition results become available, projections may adjust to reflect updated performance patterns.